In Zombieland, the main character, Columbus adhere strictly to a set of rules in order to survive the zombie apocalypse. It worked pretty well for him so I decided to have a set of rules for the new year. Here's my list:
What's yours? Share it in the comments.
A while ago, Seth Godin posted about an ebook with ideas and insights from many influential individuals and great thinkers of our time. Here's an excerpt from his post.
Here are more than seventy big thinkers, each sharing an idea for you to think about as we head into the new year. From bestselling author Elizabeth Gilbert to brilliant tech thinker Kevin Kelly, from publisher Tim O'Reilly to radio host Dave Ramsey, there are some important people riffing about important ideas here. The ebook includes Tom Peters, Fred Wilson, Jackie Huba and Jason Fried, along with Gina Trapani, Bill Taylor and Alan Webber.
It is so good and thought provoking that I just had share this to everyone. You can download it here or view it online on Scribd or wepapers.
This is an example from The Black Swan that highlights how we can not rely on the past to predict the future. I find it extremely funny and pretty disturbing at the same time.
Farmer feeds his turkey everyday. He makes sure the turkey is well-fed and taken care of. The turkey is happy because it's well fed and loved.
As time goes by, the act of being fed and loved makes the Turkey feel that this is how things should and will be. Looking back into the past, this is how it has always been. Fed and loved. This is the life of a turkey. Each passing day reinforces this thought.
Come thanksgiving, farmer butchers the turkey
Woops. If you are the turkey, you will be confused because you thought the future is bright and filled with love. But if you were the farmer, you knew this day will come. You fed the turkey for this day. Each passing day reinforces your belief that one day you will have the turkey for dinner.
What comes as a surprise to the Turkey is not for the farmer. Thanksgiving is an event that's completely random and unexpected (Black Swan) if observed from the Turkey's perspective but to the farmer that's what happen every year.
So what should we do? For starters, realize that there is a lot of things that we can't predict using data from the past. If you need to make a prediction, try to identify areas that are vulnerable to these Black Swans. Minimize the negative impact of random events and position yourself to benefit from the positive ones. If you are interested in this subject, read the book and remember, don't be a turkey.
Having read books like The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness (both by Nassim Nicholas Taleb), I'm somewhat terrified by how often we misunderstood probability and randomness. Consider these scenarios.
Probability of getting head tossing a fair coin is 1/2Probability of tossing 5 heads in a row is 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/32
Probability of getting heads after tossing 4 heads in a row is 1/2
The last scenario is where most of us make the mistake of thinking, since there's already 4 heads before this, the chances of getting another head is pretty slim.
This is known as the Gambler's fallacy. The probability is 1/2 because that is probability of getting head tossing a coin. It doesn't matter if we get 4 or 100 heads in a row, the probability remains the same because those events have already occurred and the last coin flip can be viewed as an independent event like the first scenario.
It should be obvious by now that, misconception on randomness and probability can be very dangerous to a gambler but what about the rest of us? With today's ever more complex financial instruments, we are all exposed to certain degree of risk with our investments.
In order to minimize risk, we need to understand probability. Nothing is certain in our lives and not knowing that is dangerous.
From the guys that brought you Pulp Fiction and Good Will Hunting, here's a video of 2009 in summary created using Google Wave.
Recently, I read this article by Derek Sivers about an advice given by his music teacher, Kimo Williams. He told Derek that there's no speed limit in life and taught him a few semesters worth of materials within weeks. Derek went on and graduated from college within 2 and half years. Most systems (e.g. education) are designed so that everyone can keep up. And by that definition, meeting expectations simply means you have succeeded in being average. What if you are more motivated and driven than the average person?
The good news is, you don't have to follow the expected pace and speed. You can go as fast as you can. There are many shortcuts you can take in life and you should raise your expectations as high as possible.
Now armed with this insight, how would you live your life? Will you start do anything differently?
Remember them? We were supposed to be driving or flying in one a decade ago. But it turns out that we don't need them at all. With the internet, the need to physically move from one location to another have been reduce significantly. Why drive to work when you can teleconference over Skype. It's no longer about how fast you can get from one place to another but being virtually present in as many location as possible.
Disruptive technologies like the Internet often remind us that sometimes the best way to solve a problem is to change the rules both physically and virtually.
